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WALOR
Like to see the consensus, if there is one, from the international S11 commentariat
PTC
My puppy, getting excited about today's events.

PTC
Judging from Netley's (lack of) understanding of the Brexit process I have to question his inclusion as a viable candidate.

Add Gary Johnson to the poll. biggrin.gif
JFG
I just knew Chucky was a Trump man lol.gif
PTC
Erm...where does anyone see evidence of my preference for Trump?

It's a party neutral sign, idiot.



ps...Hillary for me. The lesser of two evils.
PTC
Who voted Trump? ohmy.gif
Spurs Crew
I'll be staying up all night following the result. Last time I did that Britain got it badly wrong. I can only hope America doesn't do the same.
JFG
QUOTE (PTC @ Nov 8 2016, 03:22 PM) *
It's a party neutral sign, idiot.

Who mentioned a sign, idiot?

Just figured you for a Trumper smile.gif
PTC
QUOTE (JFG @ Nov 8 2016, 10:28 AM) *
Who mentioned a sign, idiot?

Just figured you for a Trumper smile.gif

Oh.

Well...you're wrong. Very, very wrong. wink.gif
PTC
QUOTE (Spurs Crew @ Nov 8 2016, 10:24 AM) *
I'll be staying up all night following the result. Last time I did that Britain got it badly wrong. I can only hope America doesn't do the same.

She'll win, quite comfortably, I think.

I'll just be glad when it's over. This whole circus has been less about policy discussion and more about trash talking, bragadociousness and corruption. It's been mentally draining. sad.gif
Spurs Crew
QUOTE (PTC @ Nov 8 2016, 03:36 PM) *
She'll win, quite comfortably, I think.

I'll just be glad when it's over. This whole circus has been less about policy discussion and more about trash talking, bragadociousness and corruption. It's been mentally draining. sad.gif


I'm never going to trust a poll again after Brexit to be honest. A lot of people who voted Brexit were/are ashamed of their vote and therefore didn't truthfully say who they were voting for. That messed up all the predictions and I'm worried it might happen again tonight. Hopefully I'm wrong.
Ice66
QUOTE (Spurs Crew @ Nov 8 2016, 03:38 PM) *
I'm never going to trust a poll again after Brexit to be honest. A lot of people who voted Brexit were/are ashamed of their vote and therefore didn't truthfully say who they were voting for. That messed up all the predictions and I'm worried it might happen again tonight. Hopefully I'm wrong.

that makes 2 of us. i'm not so sure hillary will win comfortably...
JFG
QUOTE (Ice66 @ Nov 8 2016, 03:42 PM) *
i'm not so sure hillary will win comfortably...

Or at all.

SC's hit the nail, I suspect that there are a lot of undeclared Trump voters which may equal a sting in the tail.
scoobyliscious
QUOTE (JFG @ Nov 8 2016, 10:56 AM) *
Or at all.

SC's hit the nail, I suspect that there are a lot of undeclared Trump voters which may equal a sting in the tail.

(you thought I wasn't going to pop in for a long-winded rant? Silly Billy Philly ...)

Not really. Recommended reading: everything on Five Thirty Eight (if you weren't already paying attention to it). They don't just discuss the polls, or use the data from the polls to model results; they actually discuss polling itself and why a model reacts to changes in polls. I may just be that kind of geek (I did, after all, study mathematics), but looking at polls in detail helps you to understand trends-over-time and not overreacting to the last data point.

I've been an eligible voter since "It's the economy, stupid" (i.e. Bush the First versus Clinton the Male) and the trends have been largely the same from that point forward: most of the country, regardless of registered party affiliation, vote along partisan lines. So, "left-leaning" independents vote for the Democratic candidate, while "right-leaning" ones vote Republican. The latest polls indicate this election, with its extra bile, largely follows the demographic and affiliation trend.

Not to go all Romney 2012, but something like 45% of the electorate are voting for whomever has a D next to her name, and similarly on the other side (you know, unless he decides to test the whole "shoot somebody on 5th Ave and not lose any votes" theorem).

The current polls, then, align closely with the demographics of the parties. And after all that review of 2012 (a.k.a. "how did we lose to Obama again?"), the Republicans reversed course on courting minority voters (specifically, those Latino voters who may lean more conservative from a socio-religious perspective but from a political perspective need and vote more left), particularly during the nomination process (see: Wall, Build That and "Murderers and rapists, but I'm sure some of them are nice people"), thereby conceding a portion of the electorate they had previously identified as potential gains, based upon the Obama Map of 2012.

Which means that whatever "gains" are to be made from espousing Trump-ism (read: Ohio, due to the change in white/male/no-college educated voters, who have traditionally voted a Union-ized D), they look likely to be offset by further losses in other demographics, like Latinos or, increasingly, women. Which is why Trump may win Ohio, but lose Florida.

The extra negative campaigning this time around has been because both candidates are historically disliked. So, even more than usual, people find themselves deciding, like PTC, between multiple evils (there were 5 such "options" on my ballot). We've complained before about choosing between two bad options, but we've never seen one, let alone two candidates who voters really (really, really, really) don't like. The "Disapproved" numbers for both candidates are twice the historic highs from previous elections (by percentage, not numbers / population growth).

What we really need is to break up and reconstitute the political parties themselves, realigning the ideologies to be more consistent with modern views. So, for example, it's possible to believe in market-oriented solutions, partnered by government with a relatively hawkish/interventionist foreign policy (cough, cough, Hillary), without believing in single-payer health care (lacks the innovation inherent in a competition-driven market). Or, to prioritize balancing the federal budget while supporting abortion rights and marriage equality. Or all of those (market-oriented, interventionist, balance-budget, socially "left"). The edges (or, if you prefer, fringes) of each party exert disproportionate control over the nomination process, leaving us with candidates espousing policies many, or most, don't agree with. Just as importantly, these extremes move the "conversation" (quotes completely intentional) in certain directions, leaving other issues without discussion (see: balancing the budget in 2016) or worse, discussing "issues" that aren't really (see: illegal immigration via a relatively open southern border).

To change the conversation, we need to realign the party coalitions, allowing us (you know, We, the People) to bring some issues to the fore and move other issues further down the priority list.

For now, though, I think Hillary wins by a small enough margin that the sides become more, not less, entrech

(Before you ask: I agree with PTC, although I would characterize it not as "lesser of two evils" and more as "lower risk of massive institutional damage with little hope of medium-term recovery" but that's just pedantic of me)
Netley Lucas
I don't think tonight compares to BREXIT. Getting out of the EU made perfect sense economically and politically whereas I'm not sure a Trump win gets the US out of anything given his hands will be tied by the structures of US Gov, legislature and his own party. Largely symbolic as getting things done will be tricky for whoever wins but it will give us an idea of who had the laziest supporters, if nothing else. Remember it was swathes of young, lazy pro-EU supporters that won it for BREXIT, and then they complained petulantly that their voices didn't count. If Hillary can get the feckless out to vote, she wins.
PTC
QUOTE (scoobyliscious @ Nov 8 2016, 02:37 PM) *
What we really need is to break up and reconstitute the political parties themselves, realigning the ideologies to be more consistent with modern views.

To change the conversation, we need to realign the party coalitions, allowing us (you know, We, the People) to bring some issues to the fore and move other issues further down the priority list.


Agreed. People need to realise that we have the power, and can effectively use it accordingly if we collectively choose.

Do you think it's possible that, should the GOP and Dem structures remain pretty much as they currently are, 'other' parties (not independent billionaires with nothing better to do) can emerge as viable options in the future? I'm guessing financials will dictate otherwise, but we can dream, right? I'd just like to see sensible alternatives...alternatives not named Gary Johnson.
PTC
QUOTE (Netley Lucas @ Nov 8 2016, 03:41 PM) *
I don't think tonight compares to BREXIT. Getting out of the EU made perfect sense economically and politically whereas I'm not sure a Trump win gets the US out of anything given his hands will be tied by the structures of US Gov, legislature and his own party. Largely symbolic as getting things done will be tricky for whoever wins but it will give us an idea of who had the laziest supporters, if nothing else. Remember it was swathes of young, lazy pro-EU supporters that won it for BREXIT, and then they complained petulantly that their voices didn't count. If Hillary can get the feckless out to vote, she wins.

Too much here to comment on, so I'll just say...funny man. laugh.gif
Netley Lucas
QUOTE (PTC @ Nov 8 2016, 08:49 PM) *
Too much here to comment on, so I'll just say...funny man. laugh.gif

nahmartin
a little over 2h until the fun starts wink.gif
PTC
QUOTE (nahmartin @ Nov 8 2016, 04:42 PM) *
a little over 2h until the fun starts wink.gif

Fun? Fun? huh.gif
nahmartin
QUOTE (PTC @ Nov 8 2016, 09:48 PM) *
Fun? Fun? huh.gif


The markets are going to go mental if Trump gets a sniff. I think it will be a lot closer than people expect. Let's see what Florida says in 2h

scoobyliscious
QUOTE (PTC @ Nov 8 2016, 03:47 PM) *
Agreed. People need to realise that we have the power, and can effectively use it accordingly if we collectively choose.

Do you think it's possible that, should the GOP and Dem structures remain pretty much as they currently are, 'other' parties (not independent billionaires with nothing better to do) can emerge as viable options in the future? I'm guessing financials will dictate otherwise, but we can dream, right? I'd just like to see sensible alternatives...alternatives not named Gary Johnson.

I'm optimistic but I have to be or I'll cry. I also think it's possible for a New Middle Party, if someone (cough, cough John Kasich cough, cough) were to very publicly compromise. Like, "I get actual debt reduction and not just losing money less quickly" for "we'll shut up about Planned Parenthood and take the P/R hit for the Trans-Pacific Partnership" kind of compromise. It will take someone with the guts to risk the scorn, but the people who are really sick of it are the middle changing things up because both sides seem so wrong. After all, there is a reason that, despite voting with a certain side, 1/3 of all voters self-identify as Independent.
Netley Lucas
Trump 6/4? 5/4? Dow futures -300. Something has changed...
Netley Lucas
Some bookies now have both @10/11 ohmy.gif
Netley Lucas
Dow futures down 600 atm, all bookies now have Trump as next president.
Spurs Crew
Just knew it.

Never underestimate the amount of idiots on this planet. Mind blowing.
Netley Lucas
Clinton hasn't conceded yet, but...

WALOR
Bismarck is supposed to have said that God protects fools, drunkards, and the United States.

What about when the president is a fool who acts drunk?
JFG
QUOTE (WALOR @ Nov 9 2016, 01:29 PM) *
Bismarck is supposed to have said that God protects fools, drunkards, and the United States. What about when the president is a fool who acts drunk?

Well, Bismarck did get sunk, so that tells you all you need to know.
RAPID
QUOTE (PTC @ Nov 8 2016, 06:23 PM) *
Who voted Trump? ohmy.gif

Those who couldn't care less... rolleyes.gif
PTC
Not what I expected, but I'm really not surpised.

The people have decided they've had enough of the same old lies, corruption and underhand, shady dealings and would like to see something different.

Now we get to see what the boy can do.


I can't imagine what Obama is thinking, knowing that the orange man will be sitting in his chair in a few weeks...
WALOR
QUOTE (PTC @ Nov 9 2016, 11:42 AM) *
Not what I expected, but I'm really not surpised.

The people have decided they've had enough of the same old lies, corruption and underhand, shady dealings and would like to see something different.


I can't imagine what Obama is thinking, knowing that the orange man will be sitting in his chair in a few weeks...



1) so they turned to someone who grew up at his father's side in NYC property development in the cutthroat 60's, 70's, and 80's

2) Obama is thinking: what would it be like to sit in this chair and get a lap dance from Melania?
Peterorange
QUOTE (PTC @ Nov 9 2016, 04:42 PM) *
Not what I expected, but I'm really not surpised.

The people have decided they've had enough of the same old lies, corruption and underhand, shady dealings and would like to see something different.

Now we get to see what the boy can do.


I can't imagine what Obama is thinking, knowing that the orange man will be sitting in his chair in a few weeks...

*Different* lies, corruption and underhand shady dealings? I'm sure they will get all that from Trump.
WALOR
And Trump is thinking:

"Vast wealth, trophy wives, massive power, endless fame - I'd give it all up in a instant if I could just win FPL."
PTC
QUOTE (Peterorange @ Nov 9 2016, 05:58 PM) *
*Different* lies, corruption and underhand shady dealings? I'm sure they will get all that from Trump.

Oh, I know. I was just being a little bit sarcastic.
Netley Lucas
MNT get through the Hex, I see where this is going.
WALOR
QUOTE (PTC @ Nov 9 2016, 06:22 PM) *
Oh, I know. I was just being a little bit sarcastic.


Banana Soldier, DreadSplit Rasta

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eOGkj2w0_Rs

crazylegs
laugh.gif
Netley Lucas
QUOTE (Netley Lucas @ Nov 8 2016, 08:41 PM) *
I don't think tonight compares to BREXIT. Getting out of the EU made perfect sense economically and politically whereas I'm not sure a Trump win gets the US out of anything given his hands will be tied by the structures of US Gov, legislature and his own party. Largely symbolic as getting things done will be tricky for whoever wins but it will give us an idea of who had the laziest supporters, if nothing else. Remember it was swathes of young, lazy pro-EU supporters that won it for BREXIT, and then they complained petulantly that their voices didn't count. If Hillary can get the feckless out to vote, she wins.


big_boss.gif
PTC
That's a tad simplistic.

Isn't it also true that quite a few (possible) Trump suporters also failed to vote? I hardly think that all of the missing 90m were definite Dems.

The bigger issue here is why so many neglect to vote. And I bet a lot of these people still bitch and complain afterwards if the result doesn't go their way.


Netley Lucas
Ah, but there's a reason why Tories, Brexit & Trump all won despite all being well behind in the polls & odds. It's been argued it's shy voters, I'm not too sure that's right. I suspect there's an overestimation of the younger, vocal, media savvy, left-leaning voter in all these polls. Maybe there's also an urban-bias factor too that isn't representative of the wider electorate.
Mind you, wasn't there a bitter battle between Clinton & Sanders? Maybe the Sanders voters couldn't quite bring themselves to vote for Hillary? Must have a look and see what type they were...
PTC
QUOTE (Netley Lucas @ Nov 11 2016, 12:55 AM) *
Ah, but there's a reason why Tories, Brexit & Trump all won despite all being well behind in the polls & odds. It's been argued it's shy voters, I'm not too sure that's right. I suspect there's an overestimation of the younger, vocal, media savvy, left-leaning voter in all these polls. Maybe there's also an urban-bias factor too that isn't representative of the wider electorate.
Mind you, wasn't there a bitter battle between Clinton & Sanders? Maybe the Sanders voters couldn't quite bring themselves to vote for Hillary? Must have a look and see what type they were...

Maybe...the polls are the problem.

Don't try and understand US politics. Your head will hurt.
Netley Lucas
QUOTE (PTC @ Nov 11 2016, 09:41 AM) *
Maybe...the polls are the problem.

Don't try and understand US politics. Your head will hurt.


I wonder what Juppé must be thinking? Didn't he have some kind of problem with the law?

WALOR, note for your diary... 23 April and 7 May 2017, France.
WALOR
QUOTE (Netley Lucas @ Nov 11 2016, 01:21 PM) *
I wonder what Juppé must be thinking? Didn't he have some kind of problem with the law?

WALOR, note for your diary... 23 April and 7 May 2017, France.



I can't vote in France.

Unless Trump decides to invade.

Bone-Joor Ma'amzelle. Parlay-voo Hubba-Hubba?
PTC
QUOTE (WALOR @ Nov 11 2016, 01:58 PM) *
I can't vote in France.

Unless Trump decides to invade.

Bone-Joor Ma'amzelle. Parlay-voo Hubba-Hubba?

Louisiana buyback.
WALOR
QUOTE (PTC @ Nov 11 2016, 03:01 PM) *
Louisiana buyback.



rather have a Louisiana Liplock on my Love Porkchop
PTC
QUOTE (WALOR @ Nov 11 2016, 05:29 PM) *
rather have a Louisiana Liplock on my Love Porkchop

/thread
WALOR
QUOTE (PTC @ Nov 13 2016, 12:53 AM) *
/thread


If your thread don't got Mojo Nixon then your thread could use some fixin


P - T - C!
You Look So Wild

P - T - C!
Let's Have a Child

We'll name it Minnie Pearl

Eat Fudge Banana Swirl

We'll Drive Around the World

Just

You

And

Me

P - T - C!
PTC
Than God for Google, 'cos I had no idea what all that nonsense was.

Never heard of them or the song.

Obviously not one of Philly's finest.
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