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> Brexit, Vent Your Spleen!
Netley Lucas
post Yesterday, 05:24 AM
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I was looking at long-term savings bonds, the rates, they are creeping up. You can get 2.5% on a 4yr fix, a grand min. Yeah, these aren't proper banks or building societies so there's a trust thing but I'm sure they comply with rules and protection etc.

Real Banks & Building Societies? They kick in at around 2% and Nationwide 1.6% for 5yr fix, so they've moved off the floor of around 1% but crikey the normal rates when you don't have a crash and slash rates to zero is around 4% to 5% for these things so still some way to go to fully escape the crash.
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Netley Lucas
post Yesterday, 05:40 AM
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Joan Ryan has become the eighth Labour MP to resign and join the breakaway Independent Group, claiming Jeremy Corbyn’s party has become “infected with the scourge of anti-Jewish racism”. The Guardian

I think she chairs Labour Friends of Israel, dunno if she's wants a 2nd Ref like the other 7 but Frank Field has been linked too and he's an ardent Leaver so maybe it's a real movement and not just a Remoaner vehicle?

She was caught up in the expenses scandal a few years back and it's believed did remove that from her Wiki page, loads of times! laugh.gif

Wonder why she didn't leave with the 7? Is this a drip-drip tactic? A few other drips mentioned, yeah Soubry... and Wollaston!

Another massive drip John Major made a speech last night! I often wonder if him & Blair really know that the people don't like them? They are not helping The Remoaner case one bit... keep on going I say! laugh.gif
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Netley Lucas
post Yesterday, 07:02 AM
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I was thinking about nm's explanation of the 4.2% yoy retail sales rise, fall in the pound. Looking at the last 3 months of '17 and '18 and comparing the £ v dollar & euro there isn't an obvious reason? You can expect import costs to rise to explain the slump but the rebound wasn't caused by a rebound in sterling was it? Discounting by retailers? Yep. Wage inflation, more people in work? Yes, yes.

Then again, you can reasonably ask why, with so much uncertainty over Brexit, people aren't saving? Why are they spending more? Don't they read or watch the news TJ?

Remember the last few recessions? Some of you are old enough! biggrin.gif Gov can only do so much, dire numbers/warnings after dire numbers/warnings then suddenly something weird happens... people miraculously start to spend! ohmy.gif

Why?

They simply get bored, they don't think they'll get sacked and they're just sick of all the gloom month after month, they're tired of it all.

What's different this time? People are working, wages are rising, a deal maybe happening, interest rates are historically bizarrely low... and no matter how much fear the BBC pumps out, the upbeat numbers continue defy the experts of gloom.

Are the people defying the experts... yet again? ohmy.gif

#robustnotbust

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scoobyliscious
post Yesterday, 03:22 PM
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QUOTE (Netley Lucas @ Feb 18 2019, 10:27 PM) *
I think that's a really good effort and certainly gives me some food for thought! biggrin.gif

By focusing on trade you perhaps give me an easy time of it though, you may have missed a trick but your assessment of the EU at the end is quite good and one that our Dutch friend alluded to earlier.

Okay, strong coffee, trade!

Even if the UK "crashes out" and with no EU trade agreement then WTO terms will apply. Not ideal but trade will continue and tariffs applied. WTO is a big thing, it is global and it works. Yes tariffs aren't good for business but doesn't it simply highlight the downside of so-called FTA's? They are Protectionist and protect the big corporations against developing economies that need the access to develop properly.

Brexit seems more likely to deliver a trade deal with the EU though, and with the balance of trade very much in the EU's favour this should be tariff free, logically. The key will be Custom's Union with some alignment to Single-Market, the Backstop Trap. If that stays the UK cannot forge independent trade deals with the ROW, it has to follow everything the EU does. You may think this is good but as a single country the belief is we can get better deals, less tariffs, liberalised markets that don't just help the UK but help the developing world too, massive reduction in protectionism, cheaper goods.
We can also get rid of VAT, it's a big tax on goods and is an EU Law, it can be scrapped! A good thing? Of course it is!

So I've argued that Brexit Trade is not protectionist but liberalising and pro-Global, outward facing not protecting your own massive multi-nationals. The EU hate this philosophy as it is inherently Protectionist, Big Business, Big Banks and will say look how long it takes us to do a trade deal, years, decades! But when you have 27 vetos for protectionism isn't it any wonder they take so long? The UK will be able to cut through all that BS, allowing better trade outside the EU and free-trade within it, best of both worlds, a good example to the world? Cheaper strong coffee? laugh.gif

Okay, the EU's Reformation... sigh laugh.gif

If you've been brave enough to read these posts then you'll know the EU heavyweights want an EU Army! If you honestly believe you can reform this USE Project then you're like Cameron, he went to them, said give us a break on Freedom of Movement, just some time, and I can say we've got a deal and No Referendum... they wouldn't listen, said you've had enough already. And look where we are? This is not Cameron's fault, it's not Farage... this is entirely the EU's fault!

The good thing is the people know what happened, know the EU's mission and had the good bloody sense to say No, we want out of this Scam and the quicker the better!

Let's go through a couple of things:
  1. The WTO "works" is a huuuuuge assumption. You've expressed your distaste for John Oliver, but he did a decent job of highlighting how the WTO works still represents massive, disruptive change (border inspections / the fresh flower importer).

    Let's try a car analogy: you have a diesel engine. For some reason (it's an analogy, just go with it), you are required to switch your engine to gasoline / petrol, but you can't purchase an entirely new car. Both engines "work" but that doesn't make moving from a diesel engine to a gasoline engine cheap, or easy. Or, even, a good policy idea
  2. You'll have to walk me through how Free Trade Agreements are more, and not less, protectionist again? Because they reduce the tariffs you agree are protectionist? Large corporations are "protected" precisely because of capitalism, i.e. efficiencies gained by economies of scale, more cash means better political access (and please, let's not pretend that capitalism, or any economic system, is completely free from the influence by and on politics and government policies. Such lies do not become us), large companies can purchase or drive out competition (and yes, part of the problem with so many popular capitalist assumptions is the refusal to understand that capitalism tends toward monopoly or oligopoly just as easily as it moves toward "perfect competition"). The "protection" of companies is due to a suppression of competition, leaving consumers with poor (or no) alternatives (see: failure of planned economies through mid-to-late 20th century). Yes, trade deals allow for ever larger economies of scale (which are, by their nature, a part of the tendency to oligopoly). But that's not a failure of trade deals; it's an abdication of regulatory responsibilities by governments (and the people in them) more interested in lining their own pockets than providing and enforcing sensible rules for all (or as close to all as we can get) of society.
  3. You believe you can get better deals. But actually making those deals has already proven much harder than previously thought. Potentially unfounded optimism, or what former U.S. central banker Alan Greenspan called "irrational exuberance" has a long history of dire economic consequences and crashes.

    Belief is a powerful thing. But, like all power, can corrupt. Beware the step from belief to arrogance. Hubris is one of the great tragic flaws of world (and, especially, Western literary traditions). Pride goeth before a fall.

    (And, to note my own #bias: President Pee-Paw (ole grand-pappy has been at it with the Twitters again!) has found the whole "better deal" thing far more difficult than he thought; we still don't have a deal with China which even approaches the quality and breadth of the TPP, leaving things less regulated with worse consequences for things like "protecting intellectual property" and a lack of enforcement for previous deals on cyber espionage. Meaning Pee-Paw's methods are working against and not for his goals, at least in the short-term/up-to-now).
  4. Again: I continue to hear your criticism of the EU (and 27 vetoes on trade deals is not, in my mind, a particularly smart structure for ensuring smooth, easy negotiations of trade deals) as specific and not "throw it all out." You have valid critiques and concerns, but the subsequent conclusion to remove the U.K. entirely doesn't seem, to me, as "logical" (man, that's another loaded word we collectively use too much; logic is actually strict and bound by rules and truth tables, whereas we are discussing varying shades of gray/grey in our belief about what constitutes the best path forward) as it appears to you. It seems to me that fixing the EU is still the best way forward, even if, like all institutions, the EU has begun to gather momentum to protect itself (which, in reading through your posts, is part of the annoyance - the EU isn't making "smart" or "right" decisions; just decisions designed to reinforce a power structure that clearly doesn't work as well as you want it to).


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tigerjames
post Yesterday, 04:00 PM
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QUOTE (Netley Lucas @ Feb 20 2019, 07:02 AM) *
Then again, you can reasonably ask why, with so much uncertainty over Brexit, people aren't saving? Why are they spending more? Don't they read or watch the news TJ?


Working class don't read , but they do watch a lot of telly thumbsup.gif
(Sorry no statistics to back that up)...but check out my previous posts...my English is terrible thumbsup.gif


Do they have money ? save?
The rich ones spending agree.gif (stockpiling all the Spam angry.gif )

Big issue this week ????

Scotland Sugar Tax ...Can of original IRN BRU £3.99 laugh.gif ..You now have to sell two "Big Issues" to afford a can angry.gif
Number 1 soft drink in Scotland... smile.gif


Netley…...You're looking to invest????
….Buy shiiit loads of sugar..stockpile it now
A sweet little investment when the Sugar tax comes here thumbsup.gif

Seen a funny thing on twitter
3 Conservative MP's that left the party where asked if they should hold By-elections for their seats
Heidi Allen, Anne Soubry, Sarah Wollaston..

Their replay...…. the last thing the country needs is a General election or any By elections
but all 3 want a 2nd referendum laugh.gif

Sorry no link




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Netley Lucas
post Yesterday, 05:16 PM
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QUOTE (scoobyliscious @ Feb 20 2019, 03:22 PM) *
Let's go through a couple of things:
  1. The WTO "works" is a huuuuuge assumption. You've expressed your distaste for John Oliver, but he did a decent job of highlighting how the WTO works still represents massive, disruptive change (border inspections / the fresh flower importer).

    Let's try a car analogy: you have a diesel engine. For some reason (it's an analogy, just go with it), you are required to switch your engine to gasoline / petrol, but you can't purchase an entirely new car. Both engines "work" but that doesn't make moving from a diesel engine to a gasoline engine cheap, or easy. Or, even, a good policy idea
  2. You'll have to walk me through how Free Trade Agreements are more, and not less, protectionist again? Because they reduce the tariffs you agree are protectionist? Large corporations are "protected" precisely because of capitalism, i.e. efficiencies gained by economies of scale, more cash means better political access (and please, let's not pretend that capitalism, or any economic system, is completely free from the influence by and on politics and government policies. Such lies do not become us), large companies can purchase or drive out competition (and yes, part of the problem with so many popular capitalist assumptions is the refusal to understand that capitalism tends toward monopoly or oligopoly just as easily as it moves toward "perfect competition"). The "protection" of companies is due to a suppression of competition, leaving consumers with poor (or no) alternatives (see: failure of planned economies through mid-to-late 20th century). Yes, trade deals allow for ever larger economies of scale (which are, by their nature, a part of the tendency to oligopoly). But that's not a failure of trade deals; it's an abdication of regulatory responsibilities by governments (and the people in them) more interested in lining their own pockets than providing and enforcing sensible rules for all (or as close to all as we can get) of society.
  3. You believe you can get better deals. But actually making those deals has already proven much harder than previously thought. Potentially unfounded optimism, or what former U.S. central banker Alan Greenspan called "irrational exuberance" has a long history of dire economic consequences and crashes.

    Belief is a powerful thing. But, like all power, can corrupt. Beware the step from belief to arrogance. Hubris is one of the great tragic flaws of world (and, especially, Western literary traditions). Pride goeth before a fall.

    (And, to note my own #bias: President Pee-Paw (ole grand-pappy has been at it with the Twitters again!) has found the whole "better deal" thing far more difficult than he thought; we still don't have a deal with China which even approaches the quality and breadth of the TPP, leaving things less regulated with worse consequences for things like "protecting intellectual property" and a lack of enforcement for previous deals on cyber espionage. Meaning Pee-Paw's methods are working against and not for his goals, at least in the short-term/up-to-now).
  4. Again: I continue to hear your criticism of the EU (and 27 vetoes on trade deals is not, in my mind, a particularly smart structure for ensuring smooth, easy negotiations of trade deals) as specific and not "throw it all out." You have valid critiques and concerns, but the subsequent conclusion to remove the U.K. entirely doesn't seem, to me, as "logical" (man, that's another loaded word we collectively use too much; logic is actually strict and bound by rules and truth tables, whereas we are discussing varying shades of gray/grey in our belief about what constitutes the best path forward) as it appears to you. It seems to me that fixing the EU is still the best way forward, even if, like all institutions, the EU has begun to gather momentum to protect itself (which, in reading through your posts, is part of the annoyance - the EU isn't making "smart" or "right" decisions; just decisions designed to reinforce a power structure that clearly doesn't work as well as you want it to).


Hey Scooby, how's it going? I'm really enjoying Jordan Peterson on You Tube. I'm not sure if he's deliberately provoking the lefties or just trying to shift books? laugh.gif

Right, let's see...

Okay, WTO? It's been going since the end of WWII in a couple of guises (GATT) and now has 164 members. It works and it somehow manages to run on a paltry 200m bucks a year and has just 640 staff! Quite something for such a massive Global operation that actually works eh? ohmy.gif I'm not saying it's better than an EU deal but if we do 'crash out' (and I didn't think we will) then it's fine, it isn't the disaster many Remainers are promoting, that's for sure... according to the boss of it. laugh.gif

FTA's? Well one person's FTA is another's Protectionist Bloc isn't it? Logically? biggrin.gif Greenspan!? Didn't he cause The Crash by not regulating properly which caused all the sub-Prime lending? They were able to load rubbish in with good loans and sell it on as a bundle and it nearly ended Capitalism! laugh.gif

Trump loves Punitive Tariffs, he's going after the EU & China with quite some gusto isn't he? He's right too. ohmy.gif

Hey, we wouldn't have had a Ref if the EU top brass had allowed Cameron a s/t break on Freedom of Movement. It showed that when push came to shove they win so sod em, they are beyond reform and we can't justify staying in just to help pro-reform nations like the Dutch when we're hardly a pro-EU country anyway, and never have been. ohmy.gif

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Netley Lucas
post Yesterday, 05:30 PM
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QUOTE (tigerjames @ Feb 20 2019, 04:00 PM) *
Working class don't read , but they do watch a lot of telly thumbsup.gif
(Sorry no statistics to back that up)...but check out my previous posts...my English is terrible thumbsup.gif


Do they have money ? save?
The rich ones spending agree.gif (stockpiling all the Spam angry.gif )

Big issue this week ????

Scotland Sugar Tax ...Can of original IRN BRU £3.99 laugh.gif ..You now have to sell two "Big Issues" to afford a can angry.gif
Number 1 soft drink in Scotland... smile.gif


Netley…...You're looking to invest????
….Buy shiiit loads of sugar..stockpile it now
A sweet little investment when the Sugar tax comes here thumbsup.gif

Seen a funny thing on twitter
3 Conservative MP's that left the party where asked if they should hold By-elections for their seats
Heidi Allen, Anne Soubry, Sarah Wollaston..

Their replay...…. the last thing the country needs is a General election or any By elections
but all 3 want a 2nd referendum laugh.gif

Sorry no link


a standard 75cl bottle of Buckfast has remained unchanged at £7.99 while the three-litre cider bottle has increased from £3.70 to £11.25. Drinks Business

That right? ohmy.gif Booze went up too but not Buckky?

Oh those 3, Soubry has been a fairly decent Tory tbh but she didn't get Brexit at all. The other 2 are really meh, not sure why they even joined the Tories, so disloyal. laugh.gif
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Netley Lucas
post Yesterday, 07:33 PM
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In 1975 the UK was in favour of the EEC, Common Market, by quite some margin too, 67% v 32%. That was the result of the 1st ever UK-wide referendum, it was a Ref on remaining or leaving (Heath took us in) but when you see who was for and against it was very different from 2016.

Broken down into Counties and Areas and Northern Ireland, all voted to remain with NI being the closest to leave. What's changed since? Federalism Agenda. Now you can argue the EU isn't, but it sure as heck nearly is! laugh.gif Works fine in the US? There have been instances of local difficulties laugh.gif but broadly, yes. So why does the UK have a problem? Because the US are States, the EU are sovereign countries.

Put it this way, if the Referendum had been of joining the Eurozone and dumping the pound or Leaving, you would not have had a 52 v 48 result.

Since when did Independence become a bad thing? Wanting to make your own Laws and Immigration Policy bad? Most countries in the world are allowed to do these basic things without much comment, praised even. laugh.gif

What about Scotland, Wales and NI? They have to take UK Laws? No, they can Leave the UK if they wish, via a Referendum. laugh.gif Yes the UK can decide if and when but broadly speaking if there's enough evidence that Leave has a chance then the UK will allow it. Good thing? Of course! biggrin.gif

England? By default yes, but no real enthusiasm, is there? ohmy.gif
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