Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

3 Pages V   1 2 3 >  
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Vote Usa
The Nut or the Crook?
haven't voted yet - how does S11 want me to vote?
Donald [ 6 ] ** [42.86%]
Hillary [ 7 ] ** [50.00%]
write-in Netley [ 1 ] ** [7.14%]
Total Votes: 14
Guests cannot vote 
WALOR
post Nov 8 2016, 02:41 PM
Post #1


Advanced Member
***

Group: Members
Posts: 2,957
Joined: 30-July 08
From: Washington, DC
Member No.: 7,728



Like to see the consensus, if there is one, from the international S11 commentariat


--------------------
If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher.


FFS Hall of Fame rank 997 ("Roscoe Pound")
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PTC
post Nov 8 2016, 03:15 PM
Post #2


Advanced Member
Group Icon

Group: Patron
Posts: 36,124
Joined: 4-March 05
From: N.E. Philadelphia, near Dunkin Donuts
Member No.: 2,846



My puppy, getting excited about today's events.

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PTC
post Nov 8 2016, 03:19 PM
Post #3


Advanced Member
Group Icon

Group: Patron
Posts: 36,124
Joined: 4-March 05
From: N.E. Philadelphia, near Dunkin Donuts
Member No.: 2,846



Judging from Netley's (lack of) understanding of the Brexit process I have to question his inclusion as a viable candidate.

Add Gary Johnson to the poll. biggrin.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
JFG
post Nov 8 2016, 03:20 PM
Post #4


Advanced Member
***

Group: Members
Posts: 4,548
Joined: 18-July 12
From: Hell
Member No.: 42,428



I just knew Chucky was a Trump man lol.gif


--------------------

You are false data.
False data can act only as a distraction.
Therefore, I shall refuse to perceive.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PTC
post Nov 8 2016, 03:22 PM
Post #5


Advanced Member
Group Icon

Group: Patron
Posts: 36,124
Joined: 4-March 05
From: N.E. Philadelphia, near Dunkin Donuts
Member No.: 2,846



Erm...where does anyone see evidence of my preference for Trump?

It's a party neutral sign, idiot.



ps...Hillary for me. The lesser of two evils.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PTC
post Nov 8 2016, 03:23 PM
Post #6


Advanced Member
Group Icon

Group: Patron
Posts: 36,124
Joined: 4-March 05
From: N.E. Philadelphia, near Dunkin Donuts
Member No.: 2,846



Who voted Trump? ohmy.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Spurs Crew
post Nov 8 2016, 03:24 PM
Post #7


Harry Kane, he's one of our own
***

Group: Members
Posts: 38,212
Joined: 1-April 05
From: Essex, England
Member No.: 2,934



I'll be staying up all night following the result. Last time I did that Britain got it badly wrong. I can only hope America doesn't do the same.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
JFG
post Nov 8 2016, 03:28 PM
Post #8


Advanced Member
***

Group: Members
Posts: 4,548
Joined: 18-July 12
From: Hell
Member No.: 42,428



QUOTE (PTC @ Nov 8 2016, 03:22 PM) *
It's a party neutral sign, idiot.

Who mentioned a sign, idiot?

Just figured you for a Trumper smile.gif


--------------------

You are false data.
False data can act only as a distraction.
Therefore, I shall refuse to perceive.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PTC
post Nov 8 2016, 03:29 PM
Post #9


Advanced Member
Group Icon

Group: Patron
Posts: 36,124
Joined: 4-March 05
From: N.E. Philadelphia, near Dunkin Donuts
Member No.: 2,846



QUOTE (JFG @ Nov 8 2016, 10:28 AM) *
Who mentioned a sign, idiot?

Just figured you for a Trumper smile.gif

Oh.

Well...you're wrong. Very, very wrong. wink.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PTC
post Nov 8 2016, 03:36 PM
Post #10


Advanced Member
Group Icon

Group: Patron
Posts: 36,124
Joined: 4-March 05
From: N.E. Philadelphia, near Dunkin Donuts
Member No.: 2,846



QUOTE (Spurs Crew @ Nov 8 2016, 10:24 AM) *
I'll be staying up all night following the result. Last time I did that Britain got it badly wrong. I can only hope America doesn't do the same.

She'll win, quite comfortably, I think.

I'll just be glad when it's over. This whole circus has been less about policy discussion and more about trash talking, bragadociousness and corruption. It's been mentally draining. sad.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Spurs Crew
post Nov 8 2016, 03:38 PM
Post #11


Harry Kane, he's one of our own
***

Group: Members
Posts: 38,212
Joined: 1-April 05
From: Essex, England
Member No.: 2,934



QUOTE (PTC @ Nov 8 2016, 03:36 PM) *
She'll win, quite comfortably, I think.

I'll just be glad when it's over. This whole circus has been less about policy discussion and more about trash talking, bragadociousness and corruption. It's been mentally draining. sad.gif


I'm never going to trust a poll again after Brexit to be honest. A lot of people who voted Brexit were/are ashamed of their vote and therefore didn't truthfully say who they were voting for. That messed up all the predictions and I'm worried it might happen again tonight. Hopefully I'm wrong.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Ice66
post Nov 8 2016, 03:42 PM
Post #12


Advanced Member
***

Group: Members
Posts: 20,022
Joined: 21-September 05
From: Hong Kong
Member No.: 4,245



QUOTE (Spurs Crew @ Nov 8 2016, 03:38 PM) *
I'm never going to trust a poll again after Brexit to be honest. A lot of people who voted Brexit were/are ashamed of their vote and therefore didn't truthfully say who they were voting for. That messed up all the predictions and I'm worried it might happen again tonight. Hopefully I'm wrong.

that makes 2 of us. i'm not so sure hillary will win comfortably...
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
JFG
post Nov 8 2016, 03:56 PM
Post #13


Advanced Member
***

Group: Members
Posts: 4,548
Joined: 18-July 12
From: Hell
Member No.: 42,428



QUOTE (Ice66 @ Nov 8 2016, 03:42 PM) *
i'm not so sure hillary will win comfortably...

Or at all.

SC's hit the nail, I suspect that there are a lot of undeclared Trump voters which may equal a sting in the tail.


--------------------

You are false data.
False data can act only as a distraction.
Therefore, I shall refuse to perceive.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
scoobyliscious
post Nov 8 2016, 07:37 PM
Post #14


Ambassador of Grandiose Vision & Pomposity
Group Icon

Group: Moderators
Posts: 4,089
Joined: 5-August 04
From: The Mystery Machine
Member No.: 1,142



QUOTE (JFG @ Nov 8 2016, 10:56 AM) *
Or at all.

SC's hit the nail, I suspect that there are a lot of undeclared Trump voters which may equal a sting in the tail.

(you thought I wasn't going to pop in for a long-winded rant? Silly Billy Philly ...)

Not really. Recommended reading: everything on Five Thirty Eight (if you weren't already paying attention to it). They don't just discuss the polls, or use the data from the polls to model results; they actually discuss polling itself and why a model reacts to changes in polls. I may just be that kind of geek (I did, after all, study mathematics), but looking at polls in detail helps you to understand trends-over-time and not overreacting to the last data point.

I've been an eligible voter since "It's the economy, stupid" (i.e. Bush the First versus Clinton the Male) and the trends have been largely the same from that point forward: most of the country, regardless of registered party affiliation, vote along partisan lines. So, "left-leaning" independents vote for the Democratic candidate, while "right-leaning" ones vote Republican. The latest polls indicate this election, with its extra bile, largely follows the demographic and affiliation trend.

Not to go all Romney 2012, but something like 45% of the electorate are voting for whomever has a D next to her name, and similarly on the other side (you know, unless he decides to test the whole "shoot somebody on 5th Ave and not lose any votes" theorem).

The current polls, then, align closely with the demographics of the parties. And after all that review of 2012 (a.k.a. "how did we lose to Obama again?"), the Republicans reversed course on courting minority voters (specifically, those Latino voters who may lean more conservative from a socio-religious perspective but from a political perspective need and vote more left), particularly during the nomination process (see: Wall, Build That and "Murderers and rapists, but I'm sure some of them are nice people"), thereby conceding a portion of the electorate they had previously identified as potential gains, based upon the Obama Map of 2012.

Which means that whatever "gains" are to be made from espousing Trump-ism (read: Ohio, due to the change in white/male/no-college educated voters, who have traditionally voted a Union-ized D), they look likely to be offset by further losses in other demographics, like Latinos or, increasingly, women. Which is why Trump may win Ohio, but lose Florida.

The extra negative campaigning this time around has been because both candidates are historically disliked. So, even more than usual, people find themselves deciding, like PTC, between multiple evils (there were 5 such "options" on my ballot). We've complained before about choosing between two bad options, but we've never seen one, let alone two candidates who voters really (really, really, really) don't like. The "Disapproved" numbers for both candidates are twice the historic highs from previous elections (by percentage, not numbers / population growth).

What we really need is to break up and reconstitute the political parties themselves, realigning the ideologies to be more consistent with modern views. So, for example, it's possible to believe in market-oriented solutions, partnered by government with a relatively hawkish/interventionist foreign policy (cough, cough, Hillary), without believing in single-payer health care (lacks the innovation inherent in a competition-driven market). Or, to prioritize balancing the federal budget while supporting abortion rights and marriage equality. Or all of those (market-oriented, interventionist, balance-budget, socially "left"). The edges (or, if you prefer, fringes) of each party exert disproportionate control over the nomination process, leaving us with candidates espousing policies many, or most, don't agree with. Just as importantly, these extremes move the "conversation" (quotes completely intentional) in certain directions, leaving other issues without discussion (see: balancing the budget in 2016) or worse, discussing "issues" that aren't really (see: illegal immigration via a relatively open southern border).

To change the conversation, we need to realign the party coalitions, allowing us (you know, We, the People) to bring some issues to the fore and move other issues further down the priority list.

For now, though, I think Hillary wins by a small enough margin that the sides become more, not less, entrech

(Before you ask: I agree with PTC, although I would characterize it not as "lesser of two evils" and more as "lower risk of massive institutional damage with little hope of medium-term recovery" but that's just pedantic of me)


--------------------
I used to stay out late and try to walk the Muse home. Now I get up fresh-faced at 7 a.m. and take advantage of her while she's passing out.
-Bono
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Netley Lucas
post Nov 8 2016, 08:41 PM
Post #15


Nirvana
***

Group: Members
Posts: 23,392
Joined: 23-August 13
Member No.: 44,432



I don't think tonight compares to BREXIT. Getting out of the EU made perfect sense economically and politically whereas I'm not sure a Trump win gets the US out of anything given his hands will be tied by the structures of US Gov, legislature and his own party. Largely symbolic as getting things done will be tricky for whoever wins but it will give us an idea of who had the laziest supporters, if nothing else. Remember it was swathes of young, lazy pro-EU supporters that won it for BREXIT, and then they complained petulantly that their voices didn't count. If Hillary can get the feckless out to vote, she wins.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PTC
post Nov 8 2016, 08:47 PM
Post #16


Advanced Member
Group Icon

Group: Patron
Posts: 36,124
Joined: 4-March 05
From: N.E. Philadelphia, near Dunkin Donuts
Member No.: 2,846



QUOTE (scoobyliscious @ Nov 8 2016, 02:37 PM) *
What we really need is to break up and reconstitute the political parties themselves, realigning the ideologies to be more consistent with modern views.

To change the conversation, we need to realign the party coalitions, allowing us (you know, We, the People) to bring some issues to the fore and move other issues further down the priority list.


Agreed. People need to realise that we have the power, and can effectively use it accordingly if we collectively choose.

Do you think it's possible that, should the GOP and Dem structures remain pretty much as they currently are, 'other' parties (not independent billionaires with nothing better to do) can emerge as viable options in the future? I'm guessing financials will dictate otherwise, but we can dream, right? I'd just like to see sensible alternatives...alternatives not named Gary Johnson.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PTC
post Nov 8 2016, 08:49 PM
Post #17


Advanced Member
Group Icon

Group: Patron
Posts: 36,124
Joined: 4-March 05
From: N.E. Philadelphia, near Dunkin Donuts
Member No.: 2,846



QUOTE (Netley Lucas @ Nov 8 2016, 03:41 PM) *
I don't think tonight compares to BREXIT. Getting out of the EU made perfect sense economically and politically whereas I'm not sure a Trump win gets the US out of anything given his hands will be tied by the structures of US Gov, legislature and his own party. Largely symbolic as getting things done will be tricky for whoever wins but it will give us an idea of who had the laziest supporters, if nothing else. Remember it was swathes of young, lazy pro-EU supporters that won it for BREXIT, and then they complained petulantly that their voices didn't count. If Hillary can get the feckless out to vote, she wins.

Too much here to comment on, so I'll just say...funny man. laugh.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PTC
post Nov 8 2016, 09:12 PM
Post #18


Advanced Member
Group Icon

Group: Patron
Posts: 36,124
Joined: 4-March 05
From: N.E. Philadelphia, near Dunkin Donuts
Member No.: 2,846



http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/interna...-20161108116755
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Netley Lucas
post Nov 8 2016, 09:21 PM
Post #19


Nirvana
***

Group: Members
Posts: 23,392
Joined: 23-August 13
Member No.: 44,432



QUOTE (PTC @ Nov 8 2016, 08:49 PM) *
Too much here to comment on, so I'll just say...funny man. laugh.gif

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
nahmartin
post Nov 8 2016, 09:42 PM
Post #20


Advanced Member
Group Icon

Group: Patron
Posts: 15,610
Joined: 1-August 08
From: UK
Member No.: 7,964



a little over 2h until the fun starts wink.gif


--------------------
FANTRAX: 469 (111.5)
DDG (12)
Alonso (8), Wan-Bissaka (11.5), Holebas (3), Thedoor (7), Fernández (10)
Shaqiri (2.5), Ritchie (6), Cairney (0), Billing (5.5), Guendouzi (0)
Vardy (22), Agüero (20), Morata (2), Hoilett (2)

FPL: 360 (62 (-4))
Ederson (6)
Robertson (7), Wan-Bissaka (9), Shaw (1)
Perreyra (2), Salah © (16), Maddison (8), Sessegnon (2)
Agüero (6), Aubameyang (7), King (2)
Stekelenburg (0), Neves (1), Digne (0), Peltier (0)

#FantasyFirst
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

3 Pages V   1 2 3 >
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 25th September 2018 - 11:59 AM